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As expected, a mention of fossil fuel phase-out has become the biggest stumbling block to an agreed outcome at the COP28 climate meeting, holding up negotiations for the last four days. On the afternoon of the penultimate day of the two-week conference on Monday, negotiators were still holed up in informal discussions behind closed doors, thrashing out a language that everyone could live with.
The biggest differences are in the draft agreement text of the Global Stocktake, or GST, which is the most important expected outcome from COP28. A GST in 2023, and every five years thereafter, is mandated under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The GST is supposed to make an assessment of gaps in current climate actions, and decide on ways to fill up those gaps. Identification of gaps is the easy part, and has been well documented in any case. It is the redressal mechanisms which are the source of headaches.
The scientific community, activists, and indeed many countries, are clear that these gaps cannot be addressed without a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels that power a bulk of the global economy but which are also the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions. All these years, countries had agreed to reduce emissions, but avoided any mention of fossil fuel phase-out. Indeed, the production and consumption of fossil fuels is still increasing, and so is global annual greenhouse gas emission. All that the current climate actions have done, through the deployment of renewables for example, is to slow down the growth of fossil fuels.
Amidst tremendous pressure due to alarming forecasts of the 1.5 degree Celsius temperature target getting breached much sooner than earlier expected, the first draft of the GST agreement text contained several options for a provision to phase-out fossil fuels. There has been a deadlock after that.
All major oil fossil fuel producing and consuming nations are opposing the inclusion of fossil fuel phase-out, some of them like Saudi Arabia more explicitly than others. India too is not too keen on the inclusion of this provision, though it would live with it as long as the developed countries are asked to take the lead in this, in accordance with the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) enshrined in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The provision on fossil fuel phase-out is almost certain to get diluted when the next draft arrives, later on Monday evening. ‘Phase-out’ could be replaced with ‘phase-down’ as was done to the coal reference in the final outcome from Glasgow conference two years ago, or some other caveats added. The possibility of the entire reference to fossil fuel phase-out getting dropped from the text is also real. A few days ago, a letter from the secretary general of Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) addressed to its member countries and a few others had asked them to reject this provision.
Negotiations on the other important track, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), is also deadlocked for the last two days.
The GGA is about finding an adaptation equivalent of a 1.5 degree Celsius temperature target. Adaptation is essentially local and its benefits also accrue locally, unlike emission cuts which provides global benefits, irrespective of the location or geography in which the cuts are made. Developing countries have been claiming that because of this, adaptation does not get enough attention, and resources, and insisting that a framework for a ‘global goal’, something similar to the 1.5 degree Celsius or the net-zero targets, on adaptation must also be defined. The Paris Agreement had acknowledged this demand, and the Glasgow meeting in 2021 had agreed to finalise it this year.
The GGA, just like the GST, is one of the deliverables from COP28.
The current draft on GGA identifies some common global objectives on adaptation, like making food and agriculture production climate-resilient and reducing climate-induced water scarcity. A two-year work programme is supposed to be launched to decide on the indicators that can measure progress on these efforts. But there is no provision for money in the text, and developing countries say it would become meaningless in the absence of clear financial flows. The lack of adequate differentiation between the responsibilities of developed and developing countries is also a problem.
Fossil fuel phase-out and problems in GGA might be the most important, but there are many other major differences in the positions of countries over a range of issues, not the least on the reluctance of developed countries to commit more financial resources for climate actions.
COP28 hosts UAE has been claiming that it would be able to bring this conference to a successful end by 11 AM on Tuesday, but never has a COP finished on time in the last 25 years.
Speaking on Monday morning, UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Steil laid down the roadmap for a successful conclusion of this COP over the next 24 hours.
“First, clear the unnecessary tactical blockades out of the way. And there have been many along this journey. The Global Stocktake needs to help all countries get out of this mess. Any strategic landmines that blow it up for one, blow it up for all. Second, I urge negotiators to reject incrementalism. Each step from the highest, each step back from the highest ambition will cost countless millions of lives, not in the next political or economic cycle, for future leaders to deal with, but right now, across every country,” he said.
“Third, preserve and respect every party’s seat at the table. Inclusion, representation, and transparency are the key tenets of this process. And fourth, in this final quarter, it’s all eyes on the prize. That means highest ambition outcomes must stay front and centre. The reality is that the highest ambition outcomes are the only way for all governments to leave Dubai with a win under their belt,” Steil said.
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