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Politics in the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir since August 2019 has had one focal point – abrogation of Article 370. The constitutional validity of the Centre’s move was upheld by the Supreme Court on Monday.
Over the past four years, the only little semblance of politics has been verbal duels between the pro-abrogation BJP and the PDP-NC-Congress combine’s demands to revoke the decisions taken on August 5, 2019, even as some regional outfits seen as “backed by the Centre” have failed to find a foothold in the political landscape.
Jammu and Kashmir has been in political turmoil since June 2018, when the BJP walked out of its alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The state was placed under President’s rule and following its bifurcation into two Union territories – Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh – has been governed by Governors and Lt Governors.
The Centre tried to fill the political vacuum through grassroots democracy and experimented with the formation of District Development Councils (DDCs) but failed to bridge the people-government gap as the administration has been exclusively run by bureaucrats.
Despite the downgrade of Jammu and Kashmir into a Union territory with a legislature, the Centre has failed to hold elections and has often thrown the ball in the Election Commission’s court, which has failed to explain the delay.
Leaders however differ on their take about politics in the union territory. Senior PDP leader and former minister Naeem Akhtar said politics has been crushed by the State. “Any resistance to this is what actual politics is. A State does it (crush politics) as it has all the tools and all the power to do what it wants,” he said. The PDP also feels that it is paying the price for its party president Mehbooba Mufti’s outspoken criticism of the Centre.
Post the abrogation of Article 370, many senior leaders of the PDP found greener pastures in Altaf Bukhari’s Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party and Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference.
Akhtar also draws a distinction between people’s politics and electoral politics. “It is a de-democratisation of the process. Elections do not matter much. The delimitation has been engineered in such a way that it will have little consequences. The architecture of power has been altered in a way such that it doesn’t matter who is on which seat,” he said.
One of the immediate outcomes of the Centre’s August 5 decision was the formation of the Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), which brought together two rivals – the PDP and National Conference (NC). Four years after its inception, the alliance seems to be falling apart with the NC hinting of going it alone if polls are held as Muslim votes in Jammu’s Pir Panjal and Chenab valley regions seem to have consolidated in its favour.
However, the NC’s prospects could be dented by former Congress stalwart Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Azad Party (DAP) in the Chenab valley despite the numerous desertions that the party witnessed within the first few months of its formation.
The Apni Party, bogged down by the tag of being the BJP’s proxy, is finding it hard to reach people in the Valley, where the NC, PDP and the Congress continue to be the three big parties.
A senior political leader said the popularity of the newly-floated parties can be ascertained only after a while. “We will have to wait for a genuine test (of popularity) but the people, State and its agencies know who is worth their salt,” he said.
The BJP, on the other hand, is not likely to face any electoral setbacks in mainland Jammu due to lack of competition despite some decline of its popularity in the area. The Congress, which seems like the only party in the region to pose a challenge to the BJP, is hampered by a leadership crisis.
The Muslim-dominated areas of Pir Panjal and the Chenab in Jammu are, however, likely to pose a stiff challenge for the BJP as it would find it difficult to take both the Gujjars and the Pahari communities along. The Gujjars are unhappy about the BJP’s decision to grant special status to the Paharis.
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